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Gordon Brown’s aggressive target for million new homes by 2020 has already started to provoke debate about a need for a shift in planning policy, to revisit restrictions on development on the greenbelt and urban fringe, as there is insufficient brownfield land to meet his target.
For the first time in a decade the percentage of houses being built on brownfield land has dropped from 77% in 2005 to 74% in 2006. To meet its target the government has a few options open to it. The simplest is to allow more development on greenfield land on the urban fringe. At the next level it is possible to redefine greenbelt boundaries to allow conurbations to expand in a more covert fashion, but it’s possibly a vote loser. Or they could pursue more new satellite settlements, leapfrogging existing conurbations in sustainable locations. Farmers with land in these locations are witnessing a strong market for sites with long term, 10-15 year development potential. In Yorkshire the successful regeneration and expansion of major cities like Leeds is fuelling demand for urban fringe land.
A recent sale of 10 acres of grass land on the western urban fringe of the city for £14,800 per acre is representative of a strong market that is convinced that urban sprawl will have to yield a medium to long-term shift in planning policy. Heading south to the west midlands 15 acres of land just on the outskirts of one of the region’s smaller towns Hockley Heath was guided at £230,000 equating to over £15,000 per acre for land that wasn’t even strictly on the urban fringe, but could form a logical urban extension site.
In the south west it is a very similar story with land even around secondary settlements attracting a lot of interest from speculative investors keen to play the market over the next 15 to 20 years. With a parcel of 12 acres of uneven grassland on the urban fringe selling at just over £16,000 per acre. And in the southeast it is no surprise to see even metropolitan greenbelt in Surrey attracting interest at 6.79 acres for £170,000 and 7.11 acres at £178,000, equating to just over £25,000 per acre. Farmers can either sell now and receive value for land in plausible locations at a price of £15,000 to £25,000 per acre with suitable clawback and overage protection, or with professional advice could seek to promote the land over the long term to be included in the next round of Local Development Framework documents, elevating the value to what in today’s market would equate to in excess of £500,000 per developable acre, but with the high associated risk, costs and delay.
Whatever the choice, Gordon Brown’s housing obsession can only be good news for farmers and landowners with land in areas where urban extension is a real possibility. Richard Brogden can be contacted on 01452 880193 or by e-mail
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